The Islands Where World War 3 Will Start

World War Three is a lot closer than you might think. But where it will start you’ve probably never even heard of. Just a few kilometres from mainland China, a series of Taiwanese islands far away from Taipei are sitting on Beijing’s doorstep. The main ones are called the Kinmen islands.

Here residents live somewhat harmoniously with China which fuels its tourism industry, its economy, and its fresh water supply. But look out to the beaches and you will see anti-invasion spikes, howitzers perched in strategic positions, and a lot of nervous people anxious about their future. China’s continues to grow its influence here like a boa constrictor squeezes its prey. And if all else fails, there will be war.

So why are these islands potentially crucial to Taiwan’s survival? Why is World War Three more likely to start here than anywhere else? And is there anything that those who live here can do to stop it? Living here is like living on a tripwire. And you don’t want to be nearby when it goes off.

Blessed Are Our Kin-men

Welcome to hell. No, we’re not in the Middle East today. This is the Strait of Taiwan. It might not look like much at the moment, but within a few years this narrow waterway is more than likely going to be filled with blood.

But between two countries trying to erase each other off the map are those who live in the middle. The main set of islands here is called the Kinmen islands, but if you head north you’ll hit the Wuqiu and Matsu islands as well which whilst smaller than Kinmen are all still in the same boat here. Let me explain.

These are what are referred to as Taiwan’s “frontline islands” – they exist very close to the Chinese mainland despite being owned and administered by Taiwan. We’re going to get into the whole “Chinese civil war” thing in a minute, but for the purposes of this article we’re just going to call them China and Taiwan, so everybody knows what we’re talking about. Yell at me in the comments about which China is the real one all you like, we’re not making a judgement on that today. For most of this piece we’re mainly going to be talking about the Kinmen islands (made up of both Greater and Little Kinmen) because despite the fact that all of these groups of islands are all different, they have a lot of shared experiences that Kinmen encompasses.

The thing is about these islands, is that absolutely nothing about them makes any sense. You’ll see what we mean as we go on through this article, but these little scraps of dirt don’t play by established world rules, and they subvert every norm like they do it for sport. Let’s start with names. Kinmen right? Seems easy enough, except that Kinmen can also be called Jinmen, Chinmen, or Quemoy – so before you come for me about pronunciation today, I’m trying, ok?

The main thing that literally sets these islands apart, and makes them such a political oddity, is distance. Kinmen for example is 187 kilometres (or 116 miles) away from its own government in Taiwan, and yet it’s barely 10 kilometres or six miles from the Chinese mainland city of Xiamen in Fujian province. An elite swimmer can do that distance in a few hours.

I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention across the last 75 years or so, but China and Taiwan don’t exactly get on very well. So having some of Taiwan’s islands this close to mainland China is what geopolitical experts refer to with the technical term “an oh shit” zone. On Kinmen, the cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou can be clearly seen from the shore it’s that close.

Greater Kinmen is the largest of all of these islands by far, and yet it’s only 19 kilometres (or 12 miles) long from east to west. That’s three times the size of the Las Vegas strip – which is to say – still very small in comparison to China. Being on the Kinmen islands then is like being a grain of sand on the back of a rabbit that’s sat next to a fucking Tiger.

Across all of the Taiwanese frontline islands we’re still talking over 150,000 people in terms of total population, but there might be apartment buildings in Shanghai with that many residents.

So you would naturally expect everyone on these islands to be absolutely terrified, living in complete fear of a hostile government and military that could be coming to get them at any moment, right?

Well, actually. No.

The Taiwanese who live on the islands – but especially on Kinmen – work on the mainland. They invest in businesses on the mainland. They visit family members on the mainland. It’s a part of their lives now.

The reality is, Kinmen relies on China for a lot, and that can make it strategically vulnerable. But we’ll tackle why that is in a little while. For all intents and purposes, those on Kinmen don’t really seem to mind living so close to the Chinese mainland, in fact, they seem to quite like the benefits it brings – at least for now.

Kinmen’s economy relies on tourism from – and trade with – China. In 2018 alone, more than 745,000 mainland Chinese tourists visited Kinmen, collectively spending more than $360 million dollars. Why so much? Well Kinmen – God bless its soul – has no Value Added Tax (or VAT) on goods and services sold locally. Which means by default anything sold in Kinmen is going to be cheaper than you might get it in China. Some people fly to Kinmen just to get the newest iPhone for example. Anything for a discount I suppose.

But it’s not just cheap goods that draw people here. The tourism industry is booming too, but only because something else was booming years ago. Kinmen used to be a land at war and its many military relics have since made it something of a military tourism hotspot for visitors from mainland Taiwan as well as from China. Huge walls of propaganda loudspeakers, military barricades, and even secret tunnels litter the landscape.

Even the souvenirs here are mostly made from the million-or-so artillery shells that once fell on this tiny island.

Among Kinmen’s best-known specialty items are knives fashioned from those old shells, sorghum wine, vermicelli, sorghum vinegar, porcelain, and ceramics (there’s a reason you call your dinnerware “China” after all). The climate, soil, and water quality of Kinmen just so happen to be ideal for growing high-oil peanuts, much of which is turned into peanut candy, a key commodity here.

You would expect then given the war all those years ago that – much like other cohabiting rivals – that those on Kinmen would thusly be resentful towards the Chinese mainland. But again, Kinmen subverts expectations.

Culturally, those on Kinmen are Taiwanese, but they feel a strong kinship with the Chinese mainland due to their close proximity, and especially with the city of Xiamen in particular, which fuels their industries. Among those industries is the famous Kinmen Kaoliang Liquor – one of the best-selling liquors in Taiwan – where the proceeds go towards paying for kids’ school lunches. Kinmen is also less built up than the mainland of both Taiwan and China, so it’s also a popular spot for bird watching.

The coastal waters here are also home to several rare and protected species, including the Chinese otter and the “living fossil” horseshoe crab. Conservation efforts are ongoing of course. There’s even not a lot of light pollution here either, so you can stargaze to your heart’s content too.

The people on Kinmen, they’ve got it pretty good right now and they know it, at least in comparison to the island’s past. Many of the island’s older residents remember the painful memories that war put them and their families through. And because of the island’s proximity to China and its historic bombardment, the Kinmen residents want to do all they can to avert conflict. Therefore those on the island welcome peace, prosperity, and cooperation efforts with Beijing under a softer approach.

One elderly shopkeeper stated of this closeness:

“Kinmen is very close to mainland China, and we had lots of exchanges in the old days. We are not hostile to each other.”

And these days it would be fair to say that Kinmen is more connected to China than it is to Taiwan, at least physically. A regular ferry service was started between Kinmen and Xiamen in 2001 as a part of normalisation plans. Currently, there are hopes from the Kinmen residents that a bridge being built between Xiamen and its new airport could eventually be extended to their islands.

The Taiwanese government has yet to even think about approving such a project though for obvious reasons. But China’s infrastructure is creeping onto Kinmen, as a fresh water pipeline has spanned the small gap since 2018. Some would love nothing more than to turn Kinmen and the wider frontline islands into a demilitarised zone – The peace islands if you will.

But it’s hard to say if that’s truly realistic here, and most Kinmen residents are wary of what a close relationship with China would really mean. For all the cooperation and tourism that it gets you, there are still anti-invasion defences lining the shore.

So how did we get here? How did we wind up with these islands sitting somewhere between cooperation and catastrophe?

It’s a Long Story

Now history in this region goes back a long way – like “thousands of years” long – and whilst we’d love to tell you all about every minute detail… actually that’s a lie we wouldn’t love to do that at all – but we don’t have the time anyway. Instead let’s start with when Kinmen first got its name. The islands here used to be known as Wuzhou before the Marquis of Jiangxia – a man named Chou Te-hsing – erected walls to defend the Kinmen Island against pirates. Because if you’re Chinese and in a position of authority building a wall just seems like the right thing to do I guess.

The Kinmen Wall would become known as the “impregnable fort guarding the gate to the sea.” Kinmen the word actually means “golden gate.”

Kinmen has a distinct history from Taiwan’s main island of Formosa. It was historically part of mainland China’s Fujian province, but it was during World War Two and afterwards that both Chinas would diverge, with Kinmen seemingly stuck in the middle. You see, Taiwan had been heavily influenced by imperial Japanese rule from as early as 1895 all the way up to the end of the Second World War.

However, the Japanese didn’t reach Kinmen until 1937, which kept them even more in touch with those in mainland China whilst Taiwan was off being annexed. The Japanese did heavily fortify the island though during their short occupation there, before being unceremoniously dumped out in 1945.

But of course for China and Taiwan, what happened after the war would shape everything yet to come. Separate factions put aside their differences during the war for the greater good, but when peace broke out it didn’t last for long, with the Civil War between the nationalists and the communists eventually ending in a communist victory in 1949. As the nationalists were slowly driven off the Chinese mainland, Kinmen’s beaches saw one of the last battles of the conflict when the nationalists were able to fight off a landing by the communists at the Battle of Guningtou.

At one point 92,000 nationalist troops were present on the island ready to launch a counteroffensive that … just never came. Some members of the nationalist army at this time even swam across the strait between Kinmen and Xiamen in order to defect. One such soldier was Justin Yifu Lin, who would go on to be appointed as Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank.

Good for him.

But despite its proximity to communist China Kinmen remained self-governing just like Taiwan had become over a hundred miles east. Taiwan did succeed in capturing other islands as it retreated, but it had to relinquish most of them as they were indefensible – but that’s how Taiwan has ended up with these few small sets of islands standing between it and the People’s Republic that they can just about hold onto.

But it would not be a quiet peace. As soon the second Taiwan Straits Crisis would arrive in 1958. Beijing began to shell the Kinmen and Matsu islands in order to eventually capture them. But Taiwan had defences of its own, and shelled the Chinese mainland back.

This continued for the next 21 years. An estimated one million mortar shells were dropped on Kinmen during that time, and although large numbers of them were only filled with propaganda leaflets, many were not. Eventually the shelling went on for so long that it became a symbolic back and forth affair, with both sides firing their guns on alternative days … just to prove a point or something.

As a result Martial Law would stick around in Kinmen even after the shelling stopped. Taiwan officially lifted it in 1987 although restrictions on many freedoms remained until 1992. In the frontline islands though they wouldn’t see Martial Law lifted properly until May of 1994.

Eventually though tensions would begin to ease between both countries, especially at the turn of the new millennium. Kinmen became a great test subject for cross-strait cooperation, and in 2001 the “mini three links” would be established between the island and the Chinese mainland – postal services, transportation, and trade. From here things would progress quietly during relative peace time.

And even amongst China’s growing rhetoric of wanting to capture Taiwan once and for all, Beijing’s links with Kinmen would continue to grow. Back in 2019 Xi Jinping proposed a new “four links” to connect the islands with the PRC through water, electricity, gas, and bridge infrastructure. That fresh water pipeline arrived on Kinmen, and the bridge we mentioned we can generously call a work in progress.

But this didn’t appear to just be Beijing reaching out to Kinmen and providing infrastructure and trade for no reason – it’s all part of a very specific strategy to reunify the country, putting it on a collision course with another global superpower, and that eventuality is getting closer than ever.

It’s The End of the World (And You Know It)

So, why would World War Three begin, and why here specifically? Well, let’s look at the facts.

In 2023, the CIA would report (and it has been widely confirmed since) that Xi Jinping told the Chinese military – the PLA – to be ready for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Next year. Now that does not mean that China is definitely going to invade Taiwan in 2027, but they will certainly be ready to do so.

At the end of the day, for all of the cooperation between Kinmen and China, Beijing still views the entirety of Taiwan as a breakaway province. Taiwan prefers the status quo where they have de facto independence as long as they don’t talk about it, which puts both nations squarely at odds with one another. Just because the bombs have stopped falling, doesn’t mean the sentiment behind them has eroded.

It wasn’t even 100 years ago. The current leader of China – Xi Jinping – was only born three years after the war ended. It’s fair to say this one’s still pretty fresh as far as geopolitical grudges go.

In fact in 2024, Xi himself stated:

“China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

China has long been undergoing a lot of different military strategies that seek to undermine Kinmen’s position, which in turn would undermine Taiwan’s. Since 2023, economic outreach has been combined with a gradual naval encirclement of the island under the guise of a “civilian” coastguard fleet.

The People’s Daily – the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party – even declared in June of 2024 that:

“The China coastguard has fully established actual control and law enforcement authority over the waters near Kinmen.”

Meanwhile naval exercises off Taiwan’s coast have included launching missiles, flying airborne incursions across the Taiwan Strait’s “median line,” and running drills simulating a potential invasion. These exercises are designed to be carried out consistently so that they can be switched to the real thing without warning. Kinmen would be the first domino to fall that would prove real intent on Beijing’s part given how utterly surrounded that it already is.

That is to say if war were to break out, it would break out here as a staging post for the full invasion of Taiwan. Kinmen isn’t completely defenceless, but being realistic any resistance on Kinmen would be quickly squashed in the event of an invasion. Simply put, China is coming, and they’re not asking for permission when they do.

It’s not just about the military power China has over the likes of Kinmen and the other frontline islands though. If it could, Beijing’s ultimate priority would be the peaceful reunification of Taiwan, and whilst that’s not very likely it has led to a number of non-military political strategies centred around Kinmen. And these strategies are designed to encircle and put pressure on all Taiwanese territory an inch at a time. The Institute for the Study of War in a 2024 assessment stated that:

“Beijing’s contemporary efforts to annex Kinmen and Matsu blend economic enticements, nonviolent coercion, legal warfare, information operations, infrastructure construction, and miscellaneous ‘grey zone’ lines of effort to manipulate public opinion on the islands and erode Taiwan’s control of its territories.”

And with neighbours like that, I’d be calling the police.

The water and the potential bridge are just a couple examples here. Today, Kinmen is reliant on China for 70% of its fresh water supply and the majority of its economy. Turning both of those resources off would severely squeeze Kinmen and put the Taiwanese government under a lot of pressure, but with the strength of the Chinese military in the area there won’t be much Taipei could do to retaliate.

This plays into Beijing’s hands in trying to force a wedge between those on Kinmen and mainland Taiwan. China has expressed its willingness to support the building of that bridge to connect Xiamen to Kinmen. It would bring a lot of economically positive activity to the island, and Kinmen’s residents generally support the idea.

But the Taiwanese government is fiercely opposed because a bridge would symbolise the integration of Kinmen into the Chinese sphere of influence – not to mention that it would be the perfect staging platform for an invasion. So Taiwan has no plans to allow a bridge to reach Kinmen, but that will leave its residents more isolated and unhappy, another win for the doting Beijing.

The Mainland Affairs Council, which oversees Taiwan’s China policy, has also strongly rejected the idea of a bridge as:

“Trojan horse carrying tremendous national security risks.”

It even went as far as to call the bridge a CCP-led influence operation on Kinmen. But this is how it works. China wants to slowly force concessions out of Taiwan by piling on the pressure and hiding in a monsoon of plausible deniability. If Beijing can consolidate its position on, in, and around Kinmen it might be able to capture it without a shot being fired.

But that could potentially even be the favourable outcome, because if war does come to Kinmen from another Taiwan Straits crisis, it could lead us towards World War Three. As you will know, the main obstacle for Beijing in trying to take Taiwan is the potential unilateral response from the United States. The US doesn’t want Taiwan annexed for a number of reasons including Taiwan’s production of semiconductor chips which are necessary for basically every piece of technology you and your government use.

Capturing such infrastructure would give China a stranglehold on the global tech economy and Pacific trade, which in turn could do untold damage to the United States’ economic position and its status as global hegemon. Taiwan being invaded would also likely cause a large economic shock to the rest of the world that the US would prefer to avoid, and it would even weaken US alliances in the region against future Chinese ambitions. Washington has no military alliance of treaty with Taipei, but it is expected to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event that China does make its move.

US allies in the region (which contain US military bases with thousands of troops) could be easily drawn into such a conflict which will then rapidly spread outside of its original theatre. And thus, World War Three.

And where in such a scenario will we see all of that begin? Right here around Kinmen and the other frontline islands. If all of that – or even part of it – is set in motion, right here is likely to be where the very first moves are made.

Kinmen’s Future

It’s fair to say that Kinmen’s future is uncertain. It could potentially be invaded, blockaded, cut off, coerced, or even bypassed entirely depending on China’s actions. The only consistent factor in what happens next to Kinmen is mostly based on the motivations of planners in Beijing. 2027 is the earliest possible date that we could see movement around Kinmen, Matsu, and Wuqiu – but given the weather window for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan is quite narrow and China likely would want to be fully prepared, 2028 has also been seen as a potential early year too.

But don’t think that if it doesn’t happen then that it won’t happen at all, arguably the 2030s might be even more volatile and vulnerable for Taiwan, as that’s when China’s capabilities will likely be even greater than they are now. Given the recent advent of cheap drones in warfare as a force multiplier for smaller nations, China may wish to delay their plans of an invasion until a suitable countermeasure has been found. We have now seen both in Ukraine and the Middle East just how powerful cheap kamikaze-style munitions are at depleting interceptor stockpiles and damaging far more expensive equipment.

China will want to make sure that its military won’t fall into the same traps, and if that takes a few more years then so be it. By the 2030s humanity will be further along this arms race, and China will be at the bleeding edge of it all. This is a country that can build a Starbucks in under an hour, one that went largely from a non-entity in the second half of the 20th century to a global powerhouse by the 21st.

Every year China gets better. It gets stronger. It gets smarter.

And that’s bad news for those who can’t keep up.

China could even hang like a sword of Damocles over Taiwan until as late as the 2040s, given that the country has claimed it will annex Taiwan through any means necessary by 2049 – the centennial anniversary of the People’s Republic.

Some who have reported on Kinmen state that they believe invasion isn’t overly likely from China, and to be honest there are merits to that argument. Right now the costs China would incur for annexing Taiwan are greater than the benefits it would receive. The Defence Intelligence Agency reported in 2025 that:

“China appears willing to defer seizing Taiwan by force as long as it calculates unification ultimately can be negotiated, the costs of forcing unification continue to outweigh the benefits, and its stated redlines have not been crossed by Taiwan or its partners and allies.”

The key word there is “defer.” The CCP can afford to bide its time, and the advantage of the Kinmen model is that it does not require the use of force, in line with Xi’s stated preference for “peaceful reunification”.

But such arguments fall down when two sides fail to agree and given that this would involve Taiwan’s capitulation – which the Taiwanese aren’t overly keen on – one can’t realistically see both sides come to a negotiated settlement here. Sure people can argue that invasion isn’t likely, but China wouldn’t be building up their military infrastructure, amassing forces, and running countless military drills across the Strait if they weren’t at least considering it. Taipei will feel the pressure not to give an inch on Kinmen though, as conceding a certain level of control over the islands not only paves the way for potential invasion, but it also proves that the Kinmen model may work on Taiwan itself.

Such efforts could be made by targeting Taiwan’s energy infrastructure for instance. Even a blockade for a few weeks around Taiwan could push the country into an energy-based state of emergency without an actual invasion being needed. In this sense Kinmen is more than just a Taiwanese set of islands off the coast of the PRC, it’s Beijing’s strategic blueprint that could be scaled up when it comes time to face the Taiwan question head on.

As we’ve said Kinmen isn’t completely defenceless – after all Taiwan was able to turn back an attack on the island in the past. Crossing bodies of water to invade somewhere amphibiously is hard, it would be very well telegraphed in advance, and the Taiwanese obviously get a vote in the whole thing as well. Kinmen and its associated islands are constantly doing live fire drills to test their defences.

Tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, amphibious landing defences, and more have all been manoeuvred into position on and around Kinmen. Taiwan has known this fight has been coming for a very long time and will prepare as best they can on the island. Kinmen might even have a few tricks up its sleeve.

The Jincheng Civil Defense Tunnels are now a tourist attraction on the island currently only accessible via guided tour. However such tunnels weren’t just built to just protect soldiers, but also the general public, and there are over two kilometres of them nestled into the rock. Tunnels are just one of the few countermeasures that seems to work better against modern drone warfare.

They add a strategic depth to Kinmen’s defences that will be useful in the event of military action. They were utilised during all of those years of shelling in the past, and if bombs do start falling again the tunnels might prove critical.

And this is how Taiwan has to frame the conflict, much like the Japanese did during World War Two (another parallel to a previous World War) the Taiwanese defence must involve grinding Chinese forces down to the extent that they are unwilling to continue the fight for so little gain. That means building up their islands to be so militarily well-defended that any captured territory comes at the cost of an ocean of blood. Taiwanese soldiers will be entrenched and expecting their enemy.

Well-sighted artillery, overlapping machine gun fire and a painful amphibious landing strikes – whilst not enough to stop China from ultimately taking Kinmen if it really wanted – might give Beijing pause for thought in even trying. It could be enough to put them off and have them pursue a soft power option instead whilst both sides bide their time. And if Kinmen turned out to be tougher than expected to take, the entirety of Taiwan, which will have even stronger defences in greater numbers, might suddenly appear more daunting.

But there’s something left here that just feels wrong about this whole situation. We can talk about the political and military situation ad nauseum. China talks about what it wants. Taiwan talks about what it wants. But it seems that nobody is all that interested in asking the islanders themselves what they want. Those on Kinmen, Matsu and Wuqiu’s islands – what is it that they would like from this whole thing? Well its complicated.

There are a lot of factors driving public opinion on the islands. Some want closer ties with China. Many are happy with life just how it is with Taiwan at the helm. The key thing they don’t want to see more than anything is a return to war. It’s only 30 years ago here that Martial Law actually ended, and people who were alive during all that shelling years ago are desperate not to see violence break out again.

Wu Chia-Chiang, chairman of the Kinmen County Tourism Association put the split in public opinion quite succinctly when he said:

“We cherish democracy, freedom and rule of law with Taiwan, but we want to have closer ties with China for greater economic benefits. It is hard for an ordinary resident here to choose between the two.”

Yang Chien-hsin, a 68 year old cafe owner, put it even clearer:

“We experienced what it was like when war broke out in the past, and we do not want that to happen again. We had to hide in air shelters almost every day. We were so used to the sound of shells landing. As soon as we heard it, we knew we had to go into hiding. You were at their mercy whether or not you were alive.”

So the Kinmen residents are stuck in a geopolitical dilemma that they never asked for, but one that throws up difficult questions for those just trying to live their lives. If peace has to come at the cost of closer ties with China, is that really peace? How will they keep their families safe if the bombs do start to fall again?

Their proximity to China will always be used by the PRC to try and worm its way in. And China can just continue to squeeze. Maybe they will simply be able to swallow Kinmen peacefully, maybe Taiwan provokes a response from China’s military, or maybe we see an outright invasion someday. But regardless, it seems for those who live on these islands, what they want ultimately won’t matter when the big decisions need to be made.

This is all just bigger than them, and yet they never asked to live on World War Three’s fault line. It’s just a little tourist hotspot that used to be a warzone. And if cooler heads don’t prevail it will be one again.

Whatever happens next for the frontline islands is unknown. But they all, and especially Kinmen, will need to be assessed carefully. Or soon those watching birds may soon be watching drones instead.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main Taiwanese islands near mainland China that could be crucial to a potential World War 3?

The main Taiwanese islands near mainland China are the Kinmen islands (made up of Greater and Little Kinmen), as well as the Wuqiu and Matsu islands to the north. These are referred to as Taiwan’s ‘frontline islands’ because they exist very close to the Chinese mainland despite being owned and administered by Taiwan.

How close are the Kinmen islands to mainland China versus Taiwan’s main government?

Kinmen is 187 kilometres (116 miles) away from its own government in Taiwan, yet barely 10 kilometres (6 miles) from the Chinese mainland city of Xiamen in Fujian province. The cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou can be clearly seen from Kinmen’s shore.

How do Kinmen residents currently interact with mainland China?

Kinmen residents work on the mainland, invest in businesses there, and visit family members there. Kinmen’s economy relies heavily on tourism from and trade with China. In 2018 alone, more than 745,000 mainland Chinese tourists visited Kinmen, spending more than $360 million dollars. A regular ferry service between Kinmen and Xiamen started in 2001, and a fresh water pipeline from China has operated since 2018.

What is the historical significance of Kinmen in the Chinese Civil War?

Kinmen’s beaches saw one of the last battles of the Chinese Civil War at the Battle of Guningtou in 1949, where nationalist troops fought off a communist landing. At one point 92,000 nationalist troops were present on the island ready to launch a counteroffensive that never came. Despite its proximity to communist China, Kinmen remained self-governing like Taiwan.

What was the Second Taiwan Straits Crisis and how did it affect Kinmen?

The Second Taiwan Straits Crisis began in 1958 when Beijing shelled the Kinmen and Matsu islands to try to capture them. Taiwan shelled back, and this continued for 21 years. An estimated one million mortar shells were dropped on Kinmen, though many contained only propaganda leaflets. The shelling eventually became symbolic, with both sides firing on alternate days. Martial law remained in Kinmen until May 1994, longer than mainland Taiwan.

What did Xi Jinping reportedly tell the Chinese military about invading Taiwan?

In 2023, the CIA reported (and it has been widely confirmed since) that Xi Jinping told the Chinese military – the PLA – to be ready for a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027. In 2024, Xi stated: ‘China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose and share in the glory of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.‘

What is China’s ‘grey zone’ strategy regarding Kinmen?

According to a 2024 Institute for the Study of War assessment, Beijing’s efforts to annex Kinmen and Matsu blend ‘economic enticements, nonviolent coercion, legal warfare, information operations, infrastructure construction, and miscellaneous ‘grey zone’ lines of effort to manipulate public opinion on the islands and erode Taiwan’s control of its territories.’ This includes providing water, proposing electricity, gas, and bridge connections, and using coastguard vessels to establish control over nearby waters.

Why is a proposed bridge between Xiamen and Kinmen controversial?

China has expressed willingness to support building a bridge to connect Xiamen to Kinmen, which many residents support for economic benefits. However, Taiwan’s government fiercely opposes it because a bridge would symbolize integration of Kinmen into China’s sphere of influence and would serve as a perfect staging platform for invasion. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council called the bridge a ‘Trojan horse carrying tremendous national security risks.‘

How could a conflict over Kinmen potentially escalate to World War 3?

If China invades Kinmen as a staging post for full Taiwan invasion, the United States is expected to come to Taiwan’s aid despite having no formal military treaty. US allies in the region with military bases and thousands of troops could be drawn in, rapidly spreading the conflict beyond its original theater. The US has strong interests in preventing Taiwan’s annexation, including protecting Taiwan’s semiconductor chip production which is crucial for global technology.

What do Kinmen residents themselves want regarding their future?

Kinmen residents are divided. As Wu Chia-Chiang, chairman of the Kinmen County Tourism Association stated: ‘We cherish democracy, freedom and rule of law with Taiwan, but we want to have closer ties with China for greater economic benefits. It is hard for an ordinary resident here to choose between the two.’ Many older residents who experienced past shelling desperately want to avoid war.

Yang Chien-hsin, a 68-year-old cafe owner, said: ‘We experienced what it was like when war broke out in the past, and we do not want that to happen again.‘

Sources

• Original Places video: The Islands Where World War 3 Will Start
• Hero image source by Heeheemalu / openverse, by-sa.